From:
sukiec@optonline.net
Date: 2005-05-16 18:24:13 UTC
Subject: RE: Milk Thistle (blood glucose, chemo, aspirin)
To: ferrethealth@smartgroups.com
Message-ID: <221281.1116267853231.JavaMail.root@thallium.smartgroups.com>
This is an explanation of why I used the word "POSSIBLE" in relation to the Milk Thistle studies (and consider it extended to other studies which have the same characteristics).
I think that it is very important to remember that until studies are verified -- in the vast majority of cases -- it is best to think of the results as "possible" or "probable" depending on factors like the size of study and the relevancy of the test species.
That still is certainly a MAJOR step up from hypotheses because there is actual carefully measured evidence.
I will have to paraphrase, but Steve's doctoral advisor (a noted professor in high energy physics) said something along the lines of:
"If only 25% of your hypotheses pan out then you are choosing problems that are too hard, but if 75% of your hypotheses pan out then you are choosing problems which are too easy to make a significant contribution." You can see why in good research ego really has no place which is why (unlike in television presentations or many movies) the best researchers so often know their strengths but they also know that they are intrinsically fallible and thus tend to be very humble and open to criticism about hypotheses, even when less so about hard study results.
Hypotheses are important to be aware of, and in some cases -- depending on the individual and the circumstances -- to follow, but it is essential to not become emotionally invested in them because as Feynman wrote:
"It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong."
since a number of hypotheses don't pan out it simply is a kindness to oneself to try to keep what is proven separate in one's mind from what is postulated. (If you think that is easy, think again, please, since we all tend to blur these.)
So, if anyone here did not know before, now you know why I wrote "possible", and why studies like the ones mentioned are so vitally important for advancing the state of knowledge.